Calculated Daily Infection Rate for Weeks of February 26 through April 1, 2020.
Based on actual data from worldometers.com5 and calculation of I (n) (see text). My prediction, made and widely disseminated at the beginning of April (see text), was that the rate of increase would be below 1.05 for most of Western Europe before the end of April.
| Country | Feb. 26–March 4 | March 4–11 | March 11–18 | March 18–25 | March 25–April 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -- | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| Belgium | -- | 1.45 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| Denmark | -- | 1.67 | 1.11 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| Finland | -- | 1.38 | 1.28 | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| France | -- | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Germany | -- | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Greece | -- | 1.41 | 1.23 | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Iceland | -- | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Ireland | -- | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Israel | -- | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| Italy | 1.31 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.06 |
| Luxembourg | -- | 1.32 | 1.61 | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| Netherlands | -- | 1.44 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Norway | -- | 1.40 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| Portugal | -- | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Spain | -- | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Sweden | -- | 1.38 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Switzerland | -- | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| United Kingdom | -- | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| United States | -- | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.18 |