Table 1.

Summary of Infected and Mortality Data by Country.

Data Austria Israel Switzerland
A: Summary of data by country, updated on May 19, 2020
Population 8,800,000 8,600,000 8,600,000
Population density (people/km2) 105 390 208
Life expectancy 82 83 84
% Population aged >65 20% 12% 19%
Case fatality rate (CFR) 3.9% 1.7% 6.2%
B: Summary of current (May 19, 2020) and predicted values of COVID-19 infections
Current infected (May 19) 16,321 16,659 30,618
Infection prediction 16,500 17,200 31,000
Infection prediction/106 population 1,875 2,000 3,605
Forecast pandemic end date June 2020 July 2020 July 2020
C: Summary of current (May 19, 2020) and predicted deaths values
Current deaths (May 19) 632 278 1,891
Forecast deaths 650 300 2,000
Case fatality rate (CFR) 3.90% 1.70% 6.50%
Forecast death/106 population 74 35 233
The end date of pandemic deaths June 2020 June 2020 July 2020
D: Summary of the error and adjustment coefficients of the models obtained from those infected
Gompertz method:
 Growth coefficient 0.097 0.087 0.085
 RMSE 472 307 459
 MAPE 10.05% 17.64% 12.82%
R2 0.9972 0.9993 0.9994
ARIMA method:
 ARIMA (p,d,q) (0, 2, 4) (0, 2, 1) (1, 2, 0)
 RMSE 130 141 182
 MAPE 3.52% 4.92% 5.44%
R2 0.9998 0.9998 0.9997
E: Summary of the error and adjustment coefficients of the models obtained from mortality
Gompertz method:
 Growth coefficient 0.083 0.074 0.078
 RMSE 9 8 22
 MAPE 5.29% 9.39% 7.26%
R2 0.9996 0.9976 0.9996
ARIMA method:
 ARIMA (p,d,q) (2, 2, 0) (0, 2, 1) (1, 2, 2)
 RMSE 5 3 14
 MAPE 8.11% 6.29% 5.03%
R2 0.9998 0.9997 0.9998
RMMJ Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal Rambam Health Care Campus 2020 July; 11(3): e0022. ISSN: 2076-9172
Published online 2020 July 31. doi: 10.5041/RMMJ.10413.