Summary of Infected and Mortality Data by Country.
Summary of Infected and Mortality Data by Country.
| Data | Austria | Israel | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| A: Summary of data by country, updated on May 19, 2020 | |||
| Population | 8,800,000 | 8,600,000 | 8,600,000 |
| Population density (people/km2) | 105 | 390 | 208 |
| Life expectancy | 82 | 83 | 84 |
| % Population aged >65 | 20% | 12% | 19% |
| Case fatality rate (CFR) | 3.9% | 1.7% | 6.2% |
| B: Summary of current (May 19, 2020) and predicted values of COVID-19 infections | |||
| Current infected (May 19) | 16,321 | 16,659 | 30,618 |
| Infection prediction | 16,500 | 17,200 | 31,000 |
| Infection prediction/106 population | 1,875 | 2,000 | 3,605 |
| Forecast pandemic end date | June 2020 | July 2020 | July 2020 |
| C: Summary of current (May 19, 2020) and predicted deaths values | |||
| Current deaths (May 19) | 632 | 278 | 1,891 |
| Forecast deaths | 650 | 300 | 2,000 |
| Case fatality rate (CFR) | 3.90% | 1.70% | 6.50% |
| Forecast death/106 population | 74 | 35 | 233 |
| The end date of pandemic deaths | June 2020 | June 2020 | July 2020 |
| D: Summary of the error and adjustment coefficients of the models obtained from those infected | |||
| Gompertz method: | |||
| Growth coefficient | 0.097 | 0.087 | 0.085 |
| RMSE | 472 | 307 | 459 |
| MAPE | 10.05% | 17.64% | 12.82% |
| R2 | 0.9972 | 0.9993 | 0.9994 |
| ARIMA method: | |||
| ARIMA (p,d,q) | (0, 2, 4) | (0, 2, 1) | (1, 2, 0) |
| RMSE | 130 | 141 | 182 |
| MAPE | 3.52% | 4.92% | 5.44% |
| R2 | 0.9998 | 0.9998 | 0.9997 |
| E: Summary of the error and adjustment coefficients of the models obtained from mortality | |||
| Gompertz method: | |||
| Growth coefficient | 0.083 | 0.074 | 0.078 |
| RMSE | 9 | 8 | 22 |
| MAPE | 5.29% | 9.39% | 7.26% |
| R2 | 0.9996 | 0.9976 | 0.9996 |
| ARIMA method: | |||
| ARIMA (p,d,q) | (2, 2, 0) | (0, 2, 1) | (1, 2, 2) |
| RMSE | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| MAPE | 8.11% | 6.29% | 5.03% |
| R2 | 0.9998 | 0.9997 | 0.9998 |