Table 2.

Average Daily Infection Rate for Weeks of March 4 through May 13, 2020.

Based on actual data from worldometers.com5 and calculation of I (n) (see text). Values below 1.01 are presented to 3 digits, to show how far the calculation is below 1.

Country Data from Table 1, Used to Predict a Rate of Increase Below 1.05 by the end of April, 2020 Actual Calculated Data, Demonstrating Correctness of Prediction Based on Table 1
March 4–11 March 11–18 March 18–25 March 25–April 1 April 1–8 April 8–15 April 15–22 April 22–29 April 29–May 6 May 6–13
Australia -- 1.25 1.24 1.10 1.03 1.01 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.002
Austria 1.36 1.31 1.19 1.09 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.005 1.003 1.003
Belarus -- -- -- -- 1.31 1.20 1.10 1.09 1.06 1.04
Belgium 1.45 1.25 1.19 1.16 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.009 1.009
Canada -- 1.31 1.25 1.16 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02
Denmark 1.67 1.11 1.07 1.09 1.08 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01
Finland 1.38 1.28 1.14 1.07 1.08 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.03
France 1.34 1.22 1.16 1.12 1.10 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.007 1.01
Germany 1.33 1.30 1.17 1.11 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.006 1.005
Greece 1.41 1.23 1.10 1.08 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.005 1.005
Iceland 1.20 1.18 1.13 1.06 1.04 1.01 1.005 1.001 1.00 1.00
Ireland 1.32 1.36 1.23 1.12 1.08 1.11 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.007
Israel 1.30 1.24 1.27 1.14 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.004 1.002
Italy 1.22 1.16 1.11 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.007 1.005
Luxembourg 1.32 1.61 1.31 1.08 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.003 1.002
Mexico -- -- 1.23 1.17 1.13 1.10 1.08 1.08 1.07 1.05
Netherlands 1.44 1.22 1.18 1.11 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.009 1.006
Norway 1.40 1.14 1.10 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.005 1.003
Poland -- 1.37 1.20 1.14 1.11 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02
Portugal 1.39 1.40 1.25 1.16 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01
Romania -- 1.28 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02
Russia -- -- 1.23 1.23 1.18 1.16 1.13 1.08 1.08 1.06
Spain 1.39 1.30 1.17 1.11 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01
Sweden 1.38 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.08 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02
Switzerland 1.32 1.25 1.20 1.07 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.003 1.002
UK 1.27 1.28 1.20 1.17 1.11 1.07 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02
USA 1.35 1.32 1.33 1.18 1.11 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02
CA -- -- 1.20 1.18 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03
 FL -- -- 1.29 1.22 1.11 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
 GA -- -- 1.32 1.19 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.02
 LA -- -- 1.30 1.20 1.15 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01
 NJ -- -- 1.46 1.3 1.15 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.01
 NY -- -- 1.44 1.15 1.09 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01
 PA -- -- 1.33 1.27 1.16 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.02
 TX -- -- 1.29 1.20 1.14 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.03
 WA -- -- 1.12 1.12 1.07 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01

--, available data inadequate for meaningful calculations; CA, California; FL, Florida; GA, Georgia; LA, Louisiana; NJ, New Jersey; NY, New York; PA, Pennsylvania; TX, Texas; UK, United Kingdom; USA, United States of America; WA, Washington.

RMMJ Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal Rambam Health Care Campus 2020 July; 11(3): e0021. ISSN: 2076-9172
Published online 2020 July 31. doi: 10.5041/RMMJ.10410.