The number needed to treat (NNT) is a simple measure of a treatment’s impact, increasingly reported in randomized trials and observational studies. It has been found to be incorrectly calculated in several studies involving varying follow-up times. We discuss the NNT in these contexts and illustrate the concept using several published studies. The computation of the NNT is founded on the cumulative incidence of the outcome. Instead, several published studies use simple proportions that do not account for varying follow-up times, or use incidence rates per person-time. We show how these approaches can lead to erroneous values of the NNT and misleading interpretations. For example, a trial of 3,845 very elderly hypertensives randomized to a diuretic or placebo reported a NNT of 94 treated for 2 years to prevent one stroke, though the correct approach results in a NNT of 63. We also note that meta-analyses involve trials of differing lengths, but often report a single NNT. For example a meta-analysis of 22 trials of the anticholinergic tiotropium in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease reported a NNT of 16 patients “over one year,” even if the trials varied in duration from 3 to 48 months, with the more specifically computed NNTs varying widely from 72, 15, and 250 for the 3-month, 12-month, and 48-month trials, respectively. Finally, we describe the value of the NNT in assessing benefit–risk, such as low-dose aspirin use in secondary prevention, where prevention of mortality was assessed against the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. As the “number needed to treat” becomes increasingly used in the comparative effectiveness and safety of therapies, its accurate estimation and interpretation become crucial to avoid distorting clinical, economic, and public health decisions.
Feelings of guilt have tormented Holocaust survivors, ranging from immediately after the liberation to later in life, for shorter or longer periods, and persisting for some throughout their entire post-war lives. Descriptions of the guilt experienced by survivors of the Nazi camps occupy an impressive amount of literature: “Why me?” was the question, when a younger and more able family member perished; “Why me?” when more productive members of the community perished; “Why me?” when a million and a half children were deprived of their lives. Many found the answer by retelling their stories, witnesses of what happened. This type of guilt is much different from the recently described phenomenon of survivor syndrome, namely the secondary guilt felt by Nazi-persecuted Jewish writers. Despite successes in all aspects of their life, these writers developed a self-incriminating guilt due to their perceived inadequacy of communicating, particularly in light of the resurging anti-Semitism worldwide. This paper deals with the survival and suicides of Nazi-persecuted Jewish writers and offers a possible explanation for their late self-destructive acts.
During the past 50 years, a dramatic reduction in the mortality rate associated with cardiovascular disease has occurred in the US and other countries. Statistical modeling has revealed that approximately half of this reduction is the result of risk factor mitigation. The successful identification of such risk factors was pioneered and has continued with the Framingham Heart Study, which began in 1949 as a project of the US National Heart Institute (now part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute). Decreases in total cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, and physical inactivity account for 24%, 20%, 12%, and 5% reductions in the mortality rate, respectively. Nephrology was designated as a recognized medical professional specialty a few years later. Hemodialysis was first performed in 1943. The US Medicare End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Program was established in 1972. The number of patients in the program increased from 5,000 in the first year to more than 500,000 in recent years. Only recently have efforts for risk factor identification, early diagnosis, and prevention of chronic kidney disease (CKD) been undertaken. By applying the approach of the Framingham Heart Study to address CKD risk factors, we hope to mirror the success of cardiology; we aim to prevent progression to ESRD and to avoid the cardiovascular complications associated with CKD. In this paper, we present conceptual examples of risk factor modification for CKD, in the setting of this historical framework.
Medicine is developing through biomedical technology and innovations. The goal of any innovation in medicine is to improve patient care. Exponential growth in technology has led to the unprecedented growth of medical technology over the last 50 years. Clinician-scientists need to understand the complexity of the innovation process, from concept to product release, when working to bring new clinical solutions to the bedside. Hence, an overview of the innovation process is provided herein. The process involves an invention designed to solve an unmet need, followed by prototype design and optimization, animal studies, pilot and pivotal studies, and regulatory approval. The post-marketing strategy relative to funding, along with analysis of cost benefit, is a critical component for the adoption of new technologies. Examples of the road to innovation are provided, based on the experience with development of the transcatheter aortic valve. Finally, ideas are presented to contribute to the further development of this worldwide trend in innovation.
An anniversary is not only a point of memory—it provides the opportunity for self-examination and paves the way to the future. Every anniversary marks a starting-point that was preceded by a vision. The beginning of any vision is a personal dream—someone wants to improve or repair the world as far as he is able. The vision motivates action; in its aftermath comes the reality. This is the 21st issue of Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal. This issue is particularly important as it marks the completion of five years of creative work pursuing our vision for a high-caliber scientific medical journal. Our vision has become reality.
Whilst painting the vault of the Sistine Chapel, Michelangelo Buonarroti left an autographical sketch that revealed a prominence at the front of his hyper-extended neck. This image was recently diagnosed as goiter. The poet Michelangelo in a sonnet dated 1509 described himself as being afflicted by goiter similarly to the cats in the northern Italian Lombardy, a region with endemic goiter. Several narratives extended this sonnet into a pathological theory. The analyses of Michelangelo’s works, however, his portraits and self-portraits, of poems and major biographies, have not indicated the likelihood of goiter. This investigation makes an attempt to assess the diagnosis on clinical as well as iconographical grounds.
As I shared in my January 2015 editorial, the furor surrounding publication in The Lancet of the open letter by P. Manduca et al. carried potential for bad and for good. Here at Rambam Health Care Campus, we have chosen and will continue to look for the good.
Bladder cancer is a common disease with a stable incidence for the past few decades despite advancements in molecular and genetic determinants of cancer development and progression. Cystoscopy remains the standard for detection and surveillance of bladder cancer, but it is an invasive and potentially costly procedure. With the knowledge of molecular alterations associated with bladder cancer numerous urine-based tumor markers have become commercially available. These urine markers have been evaluated in all clinical scenarios for the detection of bladder cancer including screening, hematuria, atypical cytology evaluation, and surveillance, but given the relative lack of impactful trials they are not routinely utilized. The efforts to develop markers with increased sensitivity to replace cystoscopy for the detection of bladder cancer have thus far been unsuccessful as well. This review addresses role of urine markers for screening, detection, and surveillance of bladder cancer.
Historically speaking, in many societies a select few carried the burden of preserving and transferring knowledge. While modern society has broadened the scope of education, this is not enough in the medical sciences. We must ensure that all those who pursue a career in medicine become life-long learners who will grow and contribute well beyond their years in medical school. In considering how to attain this goal, we were intrigued by the similarities between generations-old wisdom of teaching and learning methods in Jewish culture and modern educational principles. Both aim to nurture a culture of learners. Our objective was to parallel the methodologies, pedagogic directives, and demands made of students in the Jewish tradition, to the principles used in medical education today. We surveyed the traditional Jewish culture of teaching and learning. We compared it to modern medical teaching methods and looked to see what lessons might be gleaned. In the traditional Jewish community, life is focused on education, and producing “learners” is the ideal. This culture of learning was developed over the generations and many educational methods are similar to modern ones. Some of the pedagogic principles developed successfully in Jewish society should be considered for adaptation in medical education. Further comparative research could help to expand the ways in which we teach medicine.
The Lumenis® High-power Holmium Laser (120H) has a unique modulated pulse mode, Moses™ technology. Moses technology modulates the laser pulse to separate the water (vapor bubble), then deliver the remaining energy through the bubble. Proprietary laser fibers were designed for the Moses technology. Our aim was to compare stone lithotripsy with and without the Moses technology.
Methods. We designed a questionnaire for the urologist to fill immediately after each ureteroscopy in which the Lumenis 120H was used. We compared procedures with (n=23) and without (n=11) the use of Moses technology. Surgeons ranked the Moses technology in 23 procedures, in comparison to regular lithotripsy (worse, equivalent, better, much better). Laser working time and energy use were collected from the Lumenis 120H log.
During 4 months, five urologists used the Lumenis 120H in 34 ureteroscopy procedures (19 kidney stones, 15 ureteral stones; 22 procedures with a flexible ureteroscope, and 12 with a semi-rigid ureteroscope). Three urologists ranked Moses technology as much better or better in 17 procedures. In 2 cases, it was ranked equivalent, and in 4 cases ranking was not done. Overall, laser lithotripsy with Moses technology utilized laser energy in less time to achieve a satisfying stone fragmentation rate of 95.8 mm3/min versus 58.1 mm3/min, P=0.19. However, this did not reach statistical significance.
Conclusion. The new Moses laser technology demonstrated good stone fragmentation capabilities when used in everyday clinical practice.
